Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this week agreed to back a Brazilian-led initiative to resolve the row over his country's nuclear power industry. The plan involves Tehran being supplied with nuclear fuel by Russia and France in exchange for mechanisms which would make it harder for Iran to build a nuclear weapon.
Iran had previously rejected a similar deal, but this time Brazil will act as an honest broker, overseeing the process and acting as a mediator. Ahmadinejad's close relationship with outgoing Brazilian leader Lula undoubtedly helped to build trust, and is yet another sign of Brazil's ascendency on the international stage.
There's nothing strange about that, plenty of countries that were also-rans until recently have suddenly begun to take on huge importance in diplomatic and geopolitical terms. Look at China, Russia or India. All of those countries have, at various times in the past, been incredibly powerful and for historical, cultural, geographic or demographic reasons, have a 'natural' claim on being one of the big players. Their resurgence, is seen as a return to the natural order of things, especially in China's case.
None of that can be said of Brazil. It has no real history of engaging with the world. Culturally it is strong, but nowhere near as strong as India or China, both civilisations rather than nations. It is geographically isolated from the centres of power and while it has the fifth biggest population on Earth, it is still a very poor country with an appalingly unequal distribution of wealth. In all of these areas Brazil is moving forward, and in some cases is already stronger than most countries, but not to a degree that makes it an obvious great power.
Yet it is almost always referred to as part of the rising tide of developing countries which can no longer be ignored. It is a part of the informal BRIC (Brazil Russia India China) group of future economic heavyweights. It is considered by many to the be the planet's best hope for effective action being taken on global warming. It will host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic games. During that World Cup, more neutrals will be up for Brazil than any other country. Like chips, the Beatles and Raymond, everybody loves Brazil.
Brazil is unique in this respect. Who else has genuinely close relations with both Venezuela and the US? With Iran and Germany? Russia and Poland? With no historical baggage to sour relations, Brazil has a huge amount of diplomatic credibility and the ambition to use it to its advanatge. Being able to take a large part of the credit for resolving the Iranian issue would be a big feather in Brazil's cap (even if they don't actually do much; the fact that Brazil's mere presence makes Iran more comfortable with the proposed deal says a lot). By refusing to back the idea of sanctions against Tehran, Brazil won browie points with much of the Muslim public without seriously alienating the West. If this proposal comes off, it will be a big step towards Brazil's long-term geopolitical goal: permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council.
It is generally accepted that the membership of the UNSC is now outdated and unrepresentative. At least one other country will have to be admitted, eventually. All the other potential candidates are problematic. Europe already has three members, so admitting Germany would irritate the rest of the world. China and South Korea would have serious reservations about Japan. Beijing would also likely object to India if it came down to it, though officially they are supportive of the idea. So Brazil is the obvious choice.
It will take years, probably decades for this goal to be achieved, but if and when it is, Brazil will go from an aspiring great power to a very real one, from a diplomatic lightweight to the voice of the developing world and the Southern Hemisphere. Not bad for a nation with none of the traditional strengths needed to become a big player.
No comments:
Post a Comment