Futenma flip-flop

 

 

After eight months of public humming and hawing, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has finally made a decision regarding his pre-election promise to move the US airbase at Futenma out of Okinawa and possibly Japan altogether: he will do neither.

Hatoyama had promised the Japanese electorate that he would make up his mind by May, but the fact that the deadline has been met will do little to sway current public opinion of him. Having swept to power last September (the first time in 55 years that his Democratic Party had won), Hatoyama found himself positioned to make real changes to the landscape of Japanese politics. With approval ratings in the mid-70s and a solid mandate to change how Japan interacts with the world, the new PM immediately promised a 'less subservient' relationship with the US and vowed to tear up his predecessor’s agreement to make few changes to the Futenma base arrangements.

The problem is that Futenma is immensely unpopular not just with Okinawans, but with the Japanese people in general. Built smack bang in the middle of a city, it causes traffic jams, noise, huge amounts of pollution and crime. The crime factor became acute when three American marines gang raped a 12 year old girl in 1996, turning public opinion sharply against the continued US presence.

So, once Hatoyama took power, the world expected him to make real changes. With a general power shift towards East Asia occurring, might Japan now want to get closer to China or perhaps pursue a path in between Washington and Beijing? Might Japan recognise Futenma as a cold war relic? Would it change its constitution to allow itself to build a proper military, and allow it to stop relying on an increasingly shaky-looking America for security?

None of that happened. Having considered dozens of plans, gone back and forth to Okinawa, consulted the Pentagon and even been publicly humiliated by the Mayors of two cities which refused to absorb elements of the bases, the PM has finally relented, admitted that the vast majority of the base's functions will continue as they do presently, apologised or his failures, promised to do better in future and asked for understanding. He isn't getting it though, as his approval ratings now stand at about 23%.

So, why does Hatoyama appear intent on committing political suicide? Upper house elections in July will likely see the Democratic Party take a hammering as a result of the Futenma fiasco. Calls are already growing for the PM to resign. His coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, has threatened to withdraw from government altogether over the issue. A popular decision this is not.

No single reason stands out,but in all likelihood Hatoyama decided to keep the base on Okinawa because of a combination of the following factors;

    * Fear of the US. Though undoubtedly a declining force, America is still the most powerful country on Earth, and nowadays expends more diplomatic energy on the Asian Pacific area than anywhere else. A variety of carrots and sticks were probably used by the Americans, but the fact that Hatoyama backed down shows they still exert enough of a grip on Tokyo to keep them in line.

    * Fear of China. Though the idea of China attacking Japan may seem laughable to most people, military leaders have to plan for every eventuality. Japan’s own armed forces are strong, but they wouldn’t last long against the People's Liberation Army. Retaining an American presence would act as a strong deterrent in any hypothetical future conflict.

    * Fear of North Korea. No one would have been more overjoyed had Japan moved the US base out of the country altogether than North Korea, but their sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan 6 weeks ago will have done plenty to convince Tokyo than North Korea is a serious threat.Hatoyama has already cited this as one of the reasons the base must stay, though realistically the decision had probably already been taken at that stage.

Hatoyama must calculate that public anger will die down soon enough to keep him in his job. If it doesn’t, his successor will have taken heed of the lesson and will try to avoid making the same mistakes. Paradoxically, caving in over Futenma could eventually make the Japanese-US relationship more genuinely equal.