New poll, same old

A new BBC poll shows that public opinion of the United States is beginning to improve after years of decline during the presidency of George W. Bush. Some of this can be attributed to the ‘Obama Effect’, but other factors are at play here and say more about the media than the changing face of the balance of power across the globe today. Results concerning other countries are unsurprising and reflect not their behaviour, but rather their ability to control their public image.

First though, it’s important to examine some of the methodology used in the annual survey. 30,000 people in 33 countries were asked to rate various countries as having either a positive or negative influence on the world (how they rate their own country isn’t factored in). Different countries are selected every year (though some have been included every year), however this year has thrown up some geographical anomalies.

Every single country in North America was polled (including all six Central American nations), but only Brazil and Chile from South America. Almost every Western European nation’s opinions were included, but from Eastern Europe and the Balkans only Russia was consulted. Not one Middle Eastern or Central Asian nation was polled and only three Sub Saharan African nations made the cut. One needs to consider this when analysing these results.

Germany is the most positively-rated country in the survey. Not hugely surprising, as Berlin rarely offends anyone, is generous with aid and an incident in Afghanistan last year where its forces called in an air strike that killed around 100 civilians went largely unreported. It’s one of the great ironies of geopolitics that Germany has finally managed to dominate Europe and simultaneously become perhaps more popular than it ever has been.

Brazil is rated positively by 41% of respondents and negatively by 23%. One struggles to imagine what people imagine Brazil’s negative effects on the world to be, perhaps the inability of the state to fully protect the Amazon is a factor, but more likely is the fact that as Brazil becomes a bigger player on the world stage, it simply attracts more attention and thus more criticism.

This effect could also explain why positive views of China have dropped from 49% in 2005 to 34% today. Western media relentlessly portrays China in a negative light, but China still rates reasonably well. Unsurprisingly, African countries which have been large recipients of Chinese investment hold overwhelmingly positive (c. 70%) view of the People’s Republic. Oddly, no country has a poor a view of China as Italy does. Maybe Italians find Chinese politicians’ dull manner a poor contrast to their own Prime Minister’s behaviour.

Russia ranks poorly, as it has done since these polls were first taken.  Especially loathed in America, Mexico, the EU, South Korea and Japan, Moscow can at least be consoled by the fact that 55% of Chinese deem their giant northern neighbour to be a force for good. In the long run, this may be the most important statistic for Moscow. While Russia is viewed badly by the German and French publics, it has enough economic clout to ensure those countries’ governments seek warm relations with the Bear.

Predictably, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran are more-or-less universally despised. That won’t change in the foreseeable future and to be fair, none of those countries are trying to be loved. That western, democratic Israel is lumped in with a collapsing state, a dictatorship and a theocracy says a lot. Americans only just about see Israel positively overall, but this won’t worry the Israeli government as it knows its patron will always turn a blind eye to its treatment of Palestinians.

Which makes one wonder why so many people have a positive view of America.  Though Russia, Mexico, Germany, Turkey, China and Pakistan retain negative views of the US, its image has improved quite a bit in the last three years. Overall, 34% of respondents consider the US to have a negative influence on the world. 40% view America in a positive light, up from 27% in 2007. Could that be because the US has finally pulled out of Iraq as it promised to do? Maybe because Guantanamo Bay has been shut down? Perhaps the fact that civilians are no longer being killed in Afghanistan has something to do with it? Dramatic action on climate change? Proper dialogue with Iran instead of threats?

No, more than likely this can be explained by how little attention most people actually pay to international politics. Whatever your opinion on the US is, nothing has substantially changed about its foreign policies in the last three years apart from the manner in which the White House conducts itself. Despite having more control over media than any other country on Earth, America is still not a particularly popular country, but as long as almost no one is paying any attention, that doesn’t really matter.