Options for Turkey

More than any other country today, Turkey has options. It's in a situation many countries would envy, having myriad choices with which to shape its own future and decide how it identifies itself. If it can remain relatively stable, it has a bright future ahead.

So what exactly are those options? Well, a few of them would have seemed unthinkable even a few years ago. Quiet, strategic diplomacy has opened some doors; storming out of meetings has opened others.

The meeting in question was the World Economic Forum in Davos last year. The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, won praise in the Muslim world after angrily leaving a public session of the summit following a row with Israeli President Shimon Peres about the ongoing attack on the Gaza Strip. This was the first indication that there might be some serious problems in the previously cosy relationship between the two countries. Relations have since deteriorated further, and it appears that this may be in part an effort on the part of Ankara to position itself as a champion of the Muslim world. Erdoğan’s party, the AKP, is relatively religious by Turkish standards, and may have decided to align itself with its neighbours to the south, a strategy sometimes called Neo-Ottomanism (more out of laziness than any relevance to history).

This would of course damage relations with the US, but they have peaked anyway. Several factors have conspired to damage relations between Washington and Ankara recently. In 2003, the Turks refused to allow the US to invade Iraq from its territory. Understandable, considering the last thing Turkey wanted was an independent or autonomous Kurdistan on its doorstep (to all intents and purposes Iraqi Kurdistan is independent now), but subsequent remarks by Donald Rumsfeld which blamed Turkey for the strength of the resistance made Ankara question the value of the alliance. Then two weeks ago the US took a big step towards recognising the Armenian genocide, infuriating Ankara and straining the alliance even further. Obama will try to block full recognition, but the fact that the resolution got this far makes the Turks take a very dim view of the Americans. There are no longer any real military threats to the Turks, so while the US will remain a partner, its importance will diminish in future.

Not as much as it would if Turkey became a member of the EU. That’s a big ‘if’ though, and it looks less likely all the time. There are many reasons for the EU to keep Turkey out, few to let them in. Turkey would be initially the second biggest and eventually the biggest nation in Europe. Why would Germany, France and the UK dilute their own power by letting another heavyweight in? Also, while the EU officially supports total civilian control of the Turkish military, in reality they know that if that actually happened, Turkey could become an Islamicised state, not a popular concept in Brussels. A more likely outcome to the saga is Turkey eventually being given some sort of associate membership. Deep down they must know they aren’t going to be admitted, but withdrawing their application now would be counterproductive, so they must maintain the facade of chasing full membership.

So while there has been deterioration towards the west, none of it is irreversible or catastrophic. Israel needs to keep at least one Muslim country onside, so it won’t sever ties. As the US needs the use of bases in Turkey, particularly the airbase at Incirlik, Obama will do everything he can to avoid offending his ally. The EU doesn’t want its neighbour as a member, but doesn’t want to close the door completely, so it will find a compromise.

Things look brighter to the east. The border with Armenia was recently reopened with Russia’s blessing. Motivating this is a desire to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkey sides with Azerbaijan, but knows realistically that as long as Armenia is backed by Russia, only a diplomatic solution is an option, and that won’t happen while Ankara is completely at odds with Yerevan. If the situation could be resolved, Turkey would have a stable if not friendly neighbour on its border, a grateful and oil-rich ally in Azerbaijan.

Russia would also be pleased. And that’s no bad thing, considering how much gas comes from Siberia to Anatolia. Moscow is Ankara’s biggest trading partner, and a possible fall-back should relations with the US ever take a spectacular dive. If Turkey ever did want to align itself with the Bear, it could consider recognising Abkhazia. Turkey is host to a large Abkhaz diaspora, and could conceivably challenge Russia as the tiny Republic’s benefactor down the line. Moscow and Ankara probably have too many areas of competition to ever become true allies, but the potential for a mutually beneficial arrangement is there, should Turkey decide to pursue it.

There are also indications that Iran could be a possible target for Turkish diplomacy. President of Turkey Abdullah Gül was quick to recognise Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the legitimate winner of June’s elections. While there is no drive to emulate the Iranian Theocratic system in Turkey, there is no desire to have the Kurds in Iran achieve autonomy as they did in Iraq either, so for that reason Turkey would not welcome the collapse of the Iranian state. There are extensive trading links between the two nations, and despite some rivalry for the affections of Syria, if a regional arms race can be avoided there would be potential for the two countries to work together.

But the most profitable (both literally and metaphorically) area where Turkey could expand its influence is also the unlikeliest. Far-fetched though it might sound, there would be some real and tangible benefits if Turkey could normalise relations with the Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Kurdistan is a de facto nation now. It’s not going away, but as long as it isn’t providing any real support to independence for Kurds in Turkey, it’s no threat. It does, however, have huge oil reserves and the most likely market for that oil is Europe. One look at a map tells that for this to come to fruition, Turkey would have to agree to be a transit hub for this oil. That can be a lucrative business, and also one which gives political influence. If Turkey could help develop the economy of a Kurdish state and profit from it, it would have to its south a relatively stable nation who it could strangle economically if it so choose. For this to happen there would have to be a fundamental shift in Turkey’s view of the Kurds, but pragmatism almost always trumps ideology, and if the oil transport revenues looked big enough, it would become plausible.

So the ball is in Turkey’s court in many respects. The spectre of army coups and the destruction of the secular basis of the nation are a reality, but the recent arrest on suspicion of coup-mongering of dozens of army officers shows the government finally feels confident enough to take on the armed forces. If it can maintain internal stability, Turkey has the freedom to decide its own future, a privilege few nations enjoy.