Mind-boggling timing of Taiwan weapons sales makes you wonder…

The Dalai Lama’s visit to the White House came less than two weeks after the US decided to OK a huge arms deal with Taiwan. It also came a few weeks before the US does its best to convince China that it should back heavy sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council. Either American priorities aren’t what they appear to be, or all is not as it seems…

Iran’s revelation in September 09 that it is building a nuclear reactor in Qom seemed to have changed Medvedev’s, if not Putin’s mind on some form of sanctions. Iran was forced to make the admission because if they didn’t, the west was going to ‘out’ them anyway. Western leaders expressed mock horror (their intelligence agencies had probably known about it for a long time, projects of this size aren’t easy to hide), Israel was furious and even Russia began to dither from its support for Iran. Only China now stood in the way.

But the PRC would take some convincing. It buys a lot of gas and oil from Iran, and is reluctant to endanger its energy supplies, none of which are particularly secure (except its own coal production) or reliable. The two ancient nations have the potential to be of huge benefit to each other during China's rise.

So why would the US agree to host the Dalai Lama at this sensitive time? Well, there are several reasons. This trip was originally scheduled for last October, but was postponed by Obama so as not to sour a trip to Beijing. But he can defer so many times before it becomes damaging for him at home. The right-wing lunatic fringe led by Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck have already accused Obama of letting the US get pushed around on the international scene, and a second postponement would appear to confirm the charge that he can’t stand up to Beijing. Hu's opinion is important, but not as many Americans listen to Hu as listen to Glen Beck.

Another factor is how the Tibetan ‘spiritual leader’ is perceived in the western world. Years of support for an independent or autonomous Tibet by celebrities may be well-intentioned, but ignores what that Tibet would look like. Despite the fact that the Dalai Lama would be an unelected quasi-theocratic leader, many in Europe and North America imagine him to be an Asian Nelson Mandela type figure, albeit one who occasionally shills iPods. Obama would take a lot of flack if he appeared to be taking the Chinese Communist Party’s side over a cuddly, smiling monk because of economic concerns.

So it’s not too hard to see why the White House may have decided that they can’t and shouldn’t postpone this visit again. The weapons sales to Taiwan though, are baffling.

Since 1979, the US has been legally obligated to sell Taiwan weapons with which to defend itself from any attempt to reintegrate it into the People’s Republic. This leaves the island in a pretty secure position, despite the imbalance of forces between itself and the mainland. The terrain of the island and the weakness of the People’s Liberation Navy mean China would have its work cut out invading. It is generally assumed that if China did attempt such an adventure, the US would intervene anyway (I question whether they would, given what that could escalate in to). As long as Taiwan doesn’t declare independence, the PRC seems resigned to the situation. Every so often the US upgrades the island’s military capability, stressing that any weapons sold are of a defensive nature (they usually are), China makes a token protest, and back to square one.

These days though, the balance of power has shifted.Beijing won’t accept being ignored, and can retaliate to American provocations. When the deal was announced, Chinese state news agency Xinhua published a condemnation, saying the sale 'is a wrong decision’, ‘Frankly speaking, US arms sales to Taiwan have become a chronic disease that has been disturbing China-US ties for a long period of time’ and (the deal) ‘exposes the US usage of double standards and hypocrisy on major issues related to China's core interests’. If the State Department had expected the usual weak protest, they must have been sorely disappointed.

The reasons for the timing of the sale can only be guessed at. One possibility is that the US totally underestimated China’s reaction, but this is unlikely given how assertive the PRC has become in the last few years. Maybe Washington hoped, as they often seem to, that other countries will just see things as they do, and refuse to connect Iran and Taiwan out of some sense of good sportsmanship. Maybe the Obama administration’s diplomacy is as inept as the Bush administration’s was.

But there is another possibility. The Iranian state is shakier than it has been since the revolution, but the opposition still isn’t strong enough to topple the President, never mind the Supreme Leader. The US would like to apply pressure, but knows from experience that sanctions don’t topple leaders with large public support (as Khamenei has) and a loyal and dedicated security force. After Iraq, the last thing the US is going to do is attack Iran without a proper causus belli, so while the US publicly pushes for harsh sanctions on the Islamic Republic, it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that it would welcome an Israeli attack on Iran which might convince elements in the country that overthrowing a weakened Revolutionary Guard and state could be easier than rebuilding nuclear infrastructure. It would be unlikely to work, but no more unlikely than sanctions.